They were characterized by many international media as the most important elections for 2023 in the entire world. They were held in a climate of polarization within the country and the first Sunday did not arrive for the selection of a winner. Typically, of course, because the analysis of the results of the first round left no doubt about the final outcome of the match. A result that for many was a surprise, for others a paradox.
I imagine reading this first paragraph you are wondering if there is some kind of time paradox going on. No, June 25 has not passed, no, the 2nd electoral contest of the Greek parliamentary elections did not take place, no, we have neither a government, nor a prime minister. And certainly, the Greek elections are not the most important 2023 elections in the world. With the navel-gazing and megalomania – unjustified – that possesses us, we would very much like it, but yok!
This text is being written in anticipation of the announcement by Recep Tayyip Erdoğan (Friday, June 2) of the new Turkish government. Not that it really matters, since after the referendum on 16her April 2017 and the revision of key articles of the Turkish Constitution, the absolute ruler of the modern Turkish Republic is none other than the "president". He defines all the political directions of the country, both at home and abroad. My purpose is not to record assessments about the policy that Erdoğan will pursue in the future. There are many and mostly more experts than me who write about it. I am simply sharing some thoughts about the current situation in Turkey and mostly trying to see it through her own eyes. So what is Turkey? Or rather, what does she herself think about herself?
Modern Turkey will extinguish on October 29th 100 candles from the birth or otherwise from the death of the Ottoman Empire. This is how the famous Eastern Question was solved for the westerners. An arrangement with which its current president probably does not agree, but neither do the majority of the country's 84 million inhabitants, as well as many of the 6.5 million immigrants around the world.
For most of its modern history, Turkey has defined itself as a "middle power" or otherwise a "state of pivotal importance", i.e. a state "whose fate is uncertain and whose future will profoundly affect the countries in the regions that they surround it. A key country that could not only define the fate of its region, but also affect international stability" (Robert S. Chase, Emily B. Hill & Paul Kennedy, "Pivotal States and US Strategy", Foreign Affairs , 75:1, 1991). Perhaps this remains the most realistic way of interpreting Turkish politics. Under this approach, the concept of power plays a dominant role in the formulation of its policy and as power Turkey defines the ability to compel other states to take actions that would otherwise not be done and at the same time to resist the pressures received by the same from other states, even stronger. This power is subject to three necessary and capable conditions: military capability, economic resources, and level of development. And it seems that for the last 20 years it has all of these.
It was often written, during the pre-election period, that the economy is the one that will largely determine the election result. And when that was decided, they wondered a lot “Did they vote him in again? But how is that possible? They are hungry! Inflation is on the rise! What will feed them? national pride and Blue Homeland?' To take a closer look. The truth is that since 2018, Turkey has been facing high inflation, a result of the fall in the value of the Turkish lira, and this is indeed a problem, especially if the unorthodox monetary policy - which is also essentially practiced by Tayyip - continues.
Despite this, the Turkish economy continues to grow. In 2022, according to the IMF, the GDP in real terms increased by 5.6%, while in the first quarter of 2023, according to the data of the Turkish Statistical Authority, the percentage reached 4%, against a forecast of 3.9%. It should be noted that during the days of Erdoğan, both as prime minister and as president, the cumulative development of Turkey is remarkable.
And if the image that the average Greek has of the economic situation of the average Turk is sad, this is not documented. Turkey's per capita income in terms of purchasing power is 177% of the world average, while the corresponding figure for Greece is 166% (World Bank data for 2022). The total GDP of Turkey at current prices is expected to exceed 1 trillion dollars in 2023. Its public debt as a percentage of GDP is below 50% although it is on an upward trend after about a decade of deflation. Of course, it should be noted that Turkey is finding it difficult to access the markets as its government bonds are negatively rated by rating agencies and this may make it difficult for it to face the large reconstruction program it has promised for the areas affected by the recent earthquake (estimated cost exceeding the 100 billion dollars). The current account is in deficit, but the percentage for 2022 is at 5.4% of GDP, compared to 0.9% in 2021. Monetary policy is the one that will largely determine developments from here on out. If the "president" continues to play the sorcerer's apprentice with the policy of low interest rates, he will pay dearly for his magic. I was impressed, however, that on the website of the Central Bank of Turkey, it is pointed out that its first concern is price stability (sic!).
Certainly the economy in today's system of balances plays an important role, but Turkey's great advantage has traditionally been the "bargain" that it has successfully conducted in its relations with the great powers and powerful players. At this level, Turkey currently has many fronts open and seems to be balancing on a tightrope. I will leave out of the frame the Greek-Turkish, the Cypriot and the Turkish-Libyan agreement, known more or less to everyone, and I will initially go further east. Turkey and the Middle East. Turkey, under Erdoğan, showed a remarkable change in its foreign policy: for the first time, it presented itself as the representative of the Muslim world. Architected by Ahmet Davutoğlu, it emphasized Turkey's role in its geographical "neighbourhood", which for the most part belonged to the former Ottoman Empire, and this stance was interpreted by many as a sign of "neo-Ottomanism" inspired by Muslim radicalism . Of course, Davutoğlu's agenda included the so-called "zero problems policy" with its neighbors, which failed miserably in 2011, leaving Ankara facing isolation. The beginning was made with the condemnation of the Israeli invasion of Gaza in 2009, Erdoğan's harsh criticism of Simon Peres in Davos. This was followed by the Mavi Marmara incident in 2010 which led to the expulsion of the Israeli ambassador from Ankara, and the tension peaked in 2012-2013 when Erdoğan and Davutoğlu repeatedly called Israel a “Terrorist State”, to be followed in 2016 by a reconciliation agreement, but which does not seem to have closed the gap between them.
The course of its relations with Syria was similar, as Turkey overestimated its intervention capabilities in Syria, sided with the Free Syrian Army and broke with Assad. Of course, for Ankara, the war in Syria is not only a foreign policy issue, but also an internal one as it is connected to the Kurdish Question, and the Kurds' long-standing demand for an autonomous state in the southeastern territories of Turkey.
One could say that relations with the USA have been at a permanent turning point since 2003 when Turkey refused to actively participate in the war against Iraq. The role of Turkey, in the context of Davutoğlu's new approach, changed radically, as it was considered that Turkey cannot and should not be the mouthpiece of the West in the region, nor a bridge of communication between Islam and the West. Since then, relations between the US and Turkey have not been in the best of shape. This was also demonstrated in the case of the crisis in Syria, where the two countries followed a different approach regarding the future of the Assad regime and culminated in the S-400 crisis which was a red line for the US and NATO. Turkey took a risk and the future will tell whether it will take the lot or not. For now, it is out of the F-35 project and is at least trying to upgrade its F-16 as the balance over the Aegean shifts to its detriment.
While in 1952, Turkey out of fear of the Soviet Union chose the Western bloc and NATO as the guarantor of its security, today it seems that Turkey is closer to Russia than to the US. Despite the difference of opinion with the Russians in the case of Syria, which in 2015 caused a crisis in the relationship between them after the downing of a Russian fighter jet by the Turks, it seems that the two countries "find" each other. Their relationship seems to have been structured around economic interdependence, with energy at the center. The agreements between them go beyond the level of Turkey's energy needs, and extend to the construction of natural gas and oil pipelines to Europe and the Mediterranean - plans that have been frozen due to the aforementioned crisis centered on the Syrian, but also the Ukrainian, which but with great speed they will reheat once the crisis is over. In addition, the first of a total of 4 nuclear power plants to be built by the Russian state company Rosatom was recently inaugurated in Akougiou. The question of the supply of military equipment from Russia, as an alternative to the American arms embargo of high-tech weapons, remains open.
Finally, if something seems to be consolidating, it is the removal of Turkey's possible accession to the European Union. Of course, a perspective that from the beginning seemed distant and precarious, given the different culture on multiple levels, but also the Islamic tradition of Turkey, which during Erdoğan's days, came back to the fore. Countries like France, with its strong secular character, and Austria now seem reluctant to discuss this possibility. But there are two important issues that concern both of them and require at least one of their cooperation, while the second is the attention of the EU. The first issue concerns the migration flows from Asia and Africa passing through Turkey, while the other presence of Turkey in the Balkans, which in the cases of Kosovo and Albania is also accompanied by a military presence, although weak, but non-existent.
The position of Turkey and its influence on the regions it borders with cannot be analyzed in depth within the narrow limits of an article and is not limited to what was mentioned above. Concepts such as pan-Turanism and pan-Turkism were not analyzed, as was Turkey's presence in Transcaucasia, but also its relations with the Gulf countries, Sunni and Shiite Islam. Turkey is a complex country, which our own introversion does not allow us to see with clear eyes and realism. It is a regional power that wants to play an active role and have an opinion on everything that happens in its geographical neighborhood. We must not forget that modern Turkey is the historical continuation of the Ottoman Empire and its Turkish core, and it has never completely discarded the great idea it has for itself. I don't know if re-electing Recep Tayyip Erdoğan for a final, at most five-year term, will turn out to be the best option. Much has been written these days both for and against the final choice of Turkish voters. I imagine that we will get a first taste in the near future: he will have to immediately deal with the issue of the economy, but also take a position on the issue of Sweden's accession to NATO, at the July summit in Vilnius. These will be some early writing samples of how he will move in this last term. Following his course, however, it seems that for the first time since the founding of the modern Turkish Republic there is someone who seeks to confront both Kemal Atatürk and the ideas of Kemalism, as well as the history of his nation, seeking to overcome both two. It remains to be seen if and how he will succeed.
PS The past has taught that the combination of megalomania and power should not go unnoticed and mostly be met with apathy and hollow rhetoric. It is mainly addressed to the internal audience.
*Frontpage picture: pinterest