In 63 BC after about 500 years of rule, the people of Israel lost their freedom to the Romans when the latter invaded under Pompey the Tabernacles of the Jerusalem Temple. In 70 AD the Jews rebelled against the Romans, but with a disastrous result for them. The Roman legions, after sacking Jerusalem, set fire to the Temple and burned the entire city to the ground. The epilogue of the first Roman-Jewish war was written 3 years later, when Masada, the last stronghold of the Jews, was captured. The Masada sacrifice, as it has come to be known, is one of the most sacred moments in Jewish history. Every child in Israel knows how when the military commander of the last Jewish rebels realized that the fall of the fortress was now inevitable, he urged his men to commit mass suicide rather than fall into the hands of the enemy. According to the legend, which dresses up the historical event and gives it its unique place in the collective memory of the Jews, each man killed his wife and children, while ten men were chosen by lot to kill the rest. Afterwards, one of them killed the other nine and ended his life with his sword. This is how the first Roman-Jewish war ended. Another followed about 60 years later with a similar outcome for the Jews and which marked the beginning of the Diaspora Period.
Almost two thousand years later, I very much fear that we may be witnessing a historical equivalent of the destruction of Jerusalem and the sacrifice of Masada. But this time the location of the Roman legions is taken by the IDF (Israel Defense Forces) and Masada is the Gaza Strip. In this analogy, Hamas and its military arm, the Al Qassam Brigades, play the role of the autodidact, but by no means the hero.
Hamas is a political and paramilitary organization founded in 1987, during the first Palestinian Intifada.[i] (1987-1993), by Sheikh Ahmed Yassin and Mohammad Taha, of the Muslim Brotherhood. It is basically an extremist Islamic movement (after all, its name is an acronym for the Islamic Resistance Movement), with the main goal of destroying Israel. Despite the fact that based on its new 2017 charter, which adopts a more moderate image, it accepts the possibility of a Palestinian state on the borders of the 1967 agreement, in Article 20 it states that “Hamas rejects any alternative to the full and universal liberation of Palestine, from the river (Jordan) to the sea (Mediterranean)”, between which Israel extends.
In 2006, a year after the final Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip (with the end of the 6-Day War in 1967, the Gaza Strip was under Israeli occupation), Hamas won the Palestinian elections, both in Gaza and and on the West Bank. This victory was more a result of the Palestinian people's dissatisfaction with the corrupt leadership of Fatah than a reward for the effectiveness of Hamas in the struggle for Palestinian independence, the return of the borders to the limits of the 1967 agreement and the universal recognition of it as an independent state. For about a year, various governments of national unity with the cooperation of Hamas and Fatah took place, with Fatah being strongest in the West Bank (home to about 2.5 million Palestinians) and Hamas in the Gaza Strip (home to about 1, 8 million). This tango unfortunately came to an inglorious end when Hamas assassinated a senior Fatah security officer in Gaza and claimed that Fatah security forces would not carry out the orders of the Palestinian Authority interior minister, who was a Hamas operative. Following these events, there was a complete rupture between Hamas and Fatah, accompanied by the outlawing of Hamas by Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas. Since then, the rivalry between the two organizations has endured, with Hamas in full control of the Gaza Strip and Fatah retaining control of the West Bank.
For those unfamiliar with the geography and history of the region, it should have become clear by now that both geographically and politically there are currently two Palestinian entities: one in the West Bank and the other in the Gaza Strip. The latter is by far in the more difficult position of the two. In a strip of land, with a length of 41 kilometers and an average width of 12 kilometers, almost 2 million people are crowded in conditions of complete poverty, as for the last 16 years it has been in conditions of absolute isolation from the Israelites, while the southern border with Egypt is also closed, as the military regime in Cairo, after toppling the Muslim Brotherhood government in 2013, is in no mood to see another Islamic organization operating on its soil. The Gaza Strip is, in essence, what its name suggests: a strip of land, to the west of which is the Mediterranean Sea and Israeli warships, while the rest of its land borders are raised protective walls. Of course, not to protect its Palestinian residents from outside invaders, but to protect Israelis from suicide terrorist attacks, as well as rocket fire by Hamas and other minor factions based and operating in Gaza.
From this long-suffering point, Hamas launched its attack on the morning of Saturday, October 7, 2023. A day that will surely be etched in the memory of Israelis as one of the worst moments in their long history. A day that will probably be engraved in the memory of the Palestinians, as it may be the zero point in time for the total leveling of the Gaza Strip. As of this writing the prevailing feeling is that a land operation of gigantic proportions is imminent. For the first time in the history of modern Israel, 360,000 reservists have been called up, while the country is officially at war with a terrorist organization. But how did we get to this point?
Arab-Israeli relations have traditionally, since the establishment of the modern state of Israel in 1948, moved on a tightrope, having led in about 75 years to four Arab-Israeli wars, two Intifadas and a Lebanese-Israeli war, with tens of thousands of dead on both sides and with deep wounds in the collective consciousness of peoples of the region. The causes are multiple and complex. Essentially it is a mixture of religious fanaticism and geopolitical differences. Palestine and Jerusalem are holy land for the three monotheistic religions and an eternal bone of contention. On the other hand, it is the geographical point where Europe, Asia and Africa meet geographically and culturally. Add to that its all-important proximity to the Suez Straits, as well as its critical position on the increasingly important India-Saudi-Israel-Europe corridor, and you have on your hands an area of the planet that all the big players would love. in one way or another to control or possess.
It is a fact that in recent years, with the mediation of the United States, there has been a systematic effort to normalize Arab-Israeli relations. The culmination of these were the famous bilateral agreements between Israel and Bahrain, Israel and Morocco and Israel and the United Arab Emirates signed in September 2020 (also known as the Abraham Accords, after the biblical Abraham, common ancestor of both Arabs and of the Jews, according to the sacred texts of the two peoples). Let me remind you that the agreements with Egypt (the first Arab country to recognize the state of Israel) and Jordan were preceded in time. The Abraham Accords, among others, aim to promote peace in the Middle East, based on mutual understanding and coexistence of the states of the region, with respect for human dignity and freedom, including religious freedom. Among other things, these agreements have worked positively in the direction of the normalization of Israeli-Palestinian relations, with the freezing of the settlement of the West Bank by the Israelis, with an American dowry of course 50 F-35 for the United Arab Emirates!
And if Bahrain, Morocco and the United Arab Emirates are small players on the world political chessboard, the same is not true of Saudi Arabia: the world's largest oil producer, whose royal family constitutes the religious leadership of the Sunni Islamists (the Sunnis make up about 85% of the world's Muslim population) and in whose territory are located the two holiest mosques of Muslims. Until Hamas launched its terrorist attack last Saturday, Israel and Saudi Arabia were on the path to normalizing relations between them, which would eventually result in a bilateral agreement, along the lines of the treaties with the aforementioned Arab states. Such a deal could, according to analysts' estimates, isolate Iran, Hamas' main ally and financier, and in addition, it could channel funds to the Palestinian Authority, i.e. Fatah and the West Bank, leaving out Hamas. Could this deal be derailed? Let's see.
The operation "flooding Al Aqsa" launched by Hamas is unprecedented in terms of the number of hostages they kidnapped. According to estimates so far, more than 150 abductees have been reported, most of whom are women and children. The kidnapping of Israelis is a favorite tactic of Hamas terrorists, in order to negotiate the exchange of hostages with imprisoned Palestinian terrorists. Israel, on the other hand, has a long history of exchanging hostages as it places a high priority on the lives of its citizens. Let me remind you that in 2011, he exchanged more than 1,000 imprisoned Palestinian Hamas fighters for the Israeli soldier Gilad Sahit, who was being held hostage in Gaza by Hamas. But this time things are rather different. On the one hand, because the number of 150 abductees is high enough to be a subject of negotiation, but also because on the other hand, the approximately 1,400 dead Israelis, with the official figures so far, have absolutely rallied the majority of the Israeli people, who demands the elimination of Hamas. Of course, the disappearance of Hamas from the face of the earth presupposes a boot on the ground, i.e. a land intervention with all that means for both sides. What it most certainly entails is a hundred and two dead. It was mentioned above that the Gaza Strip is one of the most densely populated places in the world and furthermore, its subsoil is full of underground tunnels through which the Islamic militants transport weapons and supplies. For Israel's ground forces operating in this area, the intervention entails a 360-degree guerrilla war, with casualties from friendly fire more than a given. Additionally, in such a spatially narrow space where the war is being waged in the form of disorderly warfare, it is extremely difficult to distinguish between Islamic militants and the civilian population. Collateral losses, but also extremes should be taken for granted. Anyone who operates under such psychological pressure and stress is very easily exhausted through complete obscurity. Unfortunately, we have seen it happen again.
So we come back to our last question. Could the Saudi-Israel deal be derailed? Much will depend on Israel's willingness to intervene with ground forces – which at this stage is considered more than a given – and on the extent of these. Atrocities and a large number of dead civilians, women and children are sure to rally the Arab League against Israel and put pressure on Saudi Arabia. Pressures that will of course also come from within it. Let's not forget that the Palestinians are Sunni, a characteristic that puts particular pressure on Saudi Arabia and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, as the protector of Sunni Muslims, but also of the Palestinians.
I find that no one today can predict the future with certainty. What I consider almost certain is that prudence, logic and a climate of consensus will not prevail. On the one hand, Hamas, a politically and religiously fanatical political formation with a fanatical and intolerant paramilitary arm, and on the other, Israel's most conservative and centralized government, perhaps by birth. The terrorist act of Hamas - because it is a terrorist act - managed to rally around the face of the extreme Benjamin Netanyahu, almost all components of the Israeli political spectrum. And believe me, this is not easy at all. It may be that in our eyes, both the Palestinians and the Israelis appear as solid ethnic groups, but the reality is very different.
Based on the 2014 census, the Jewish element accounts for 75% of Israel's population, while the Muslim population accounts for 17% (!). Druze and Christians from 2% while the rest of 4% consists of a variety of minorities. However, even among the Jewish majority there are deep divisions. The long period of the Diaspora has divided the Jews into two main categories, the Ashkenazi who wandered to the West and the Sephardim who were expelled from the Arab countries after 1948. The Ashkenazi have traditionally tended to be considered the rulers of the political and business world, due to their education and their European culture, but also because of their early settlement in Palestine from the end of the 19ου and the beginning of the 20thου century. Nevertheless, in recent years the Sephardim have increased their influence, and it is their religious parties that currently support Benjamin Netanyahu's six-party coalition government. Of course, whether it is Sephardim or Ashkenazi, there is another, harder religious stratification, that between the secular (49%), the traditional (29%), the religious (13%) and the ultra-orthodox element (9%), also known as Haredim: those who fall before God. These layers, all living together in a small country, speak the same language, but rarely have social contact with each other. In fact, entire cities such as Jerusalem or Tel Aviv are divided into areas that are almost exclusively secular or religious. It is clear that these social stratifications also affect the political sphere, but also the way they approach the Palestinian issue and the proposed solutions.
So it is interesting to see how all these social groups inside Israel will shape the balance in the near future and after a strong ground intervention, as an act of revenge after their own 11her September. While now the front looks almost solid, one cannot discount the same attitude when they will be involved in a war from which they do not know when and how they will get out. Really, people don't learn from history?
At the beginning of this century, the US received a similar terrorist attack that they had no idea would happen. They reacted in the way that is expected and has been declared that Israel will react in the coming days. The result was rather negative for the US: it was dragged into a series of wars in the Middle East and Afghanistan from which it withdrew without any substantial result. Or rather there was a result: the loss of the status of the only superpower and the change of the world order. Certainly Israel did not have, nor will it ever have, a corresponding position, but by analogy, it can get involved in a war that will wear it down economically and geopolitically, while at the same time it can jeopardize its relations with part of the Arab world that with so much effort built.
The outcome of this conflict is an event waiting to be weighed by a number of countries in the region, prominently Iran and Turkey who claim leadership in the Muslim world. In addition to these and the countries of the Arab League, both Russia and China indirectly have interests that depend on the outcome of the conflict, connecting the Palestinian issue with the possible involvement and deterioration of the USA. Finally, what is happening in Israel does not leave us indifferent either. The single energy space that constitutes Israel, Cyprus and Greece, make the Greek element in the eyes of many Arabs as a friend close to Israel and therefore a possible target of retaliation in the event of a generalized Jihad.
The issue of Palestine is not exhausted in a few lines. It is so complex, complex, and its roots stretch back centuries, that it cannot be captured in full development even in a book. Unfortunately, its outcome is correspondingly complex and unpredictable. More often than not, the choice of war is the tacit admission of the failure of civilized man's value system. This conflict, which day by day is escalating more and more, will be a conflict without heroes and wondrous deeds. In this conflict, everyone has their hands covered in blood. But if they want to be honest with each other, and above all, if they want to end this perpetual blood cycle, they should both stop claiming for themselves the victim position and the moral advantage. This is long gone…
Instead of an epilogue. The text was completed on the evening of Thursday, October 12, six days after her stroke Hamas. Up to this moment the number of dead Israelites amounts to approximately 1,300. On the other hand, there is talk of 1,400 dead Palestinians. Israel's Ministry of Defense has announced that it has fired about 6,000 rockets into this small corner of the planet. Iran's foreign minister said that "Our clear answer is that everything depends on the actions of the Zionist regime in Gaza", leaving open the possibility of a second front on the border with Lebanon and its active involvement Hezbollah. Its missiles are estimated at 150,000 Hezbollah that can hit cities of Israel. The information we have is asymmetric. Information coming from the Gaza Strip is difficult to evaluate.
[i] "Intifada": comes from the Arabic word "nafada" which means liberation, and in this case, it translates as liberation from oppression.
*Cover photo: The shot of a mosque destroyed by Israeli airstrikes in Gaza City / Mohammed Talatene / dpa / Getty
